A recent post concerning a fund raiser meeting for Jack Duran generated lots of strong comments, pro and con. That’s a good thing. It was also a reality check.

We have a republic form of government, not a town hall style democracy. We don’t get to vote directly for issues. We elect representatives to do that for us. Usually it works pretty well: Case in point, Morgan Creek land use if the golf course should close. So what does that mean? Like it or not we need to rely on our elected representatives to make the ultimate decision. In this case, and at least until 2019, that’s Jack Duran and our issue is now.

So how do we insure Jack is on our side, only 3 ways; appeal to logic, votes, and money. Many of you seem to view politics as an ugly partisan business. Perhaps it is. But for now, Mr Duran is the incumbent and we need to support him to get what we want. Realize it, or not, in our small district we control over 1,000 votes. That is significant. We are also a relatively affluent community. To get his attention we need to address all three. That is the intent of announcing the fund raiser. We hope you’ll come and make your voice heard. This blog provides the information. In the end it’s your decision.

But what about His opponent, Bonnie Gore, in the upcoming election? If someone wanted to sponsor a fund raiser for her, we’d be happy to announce it on the blog. The point is, to preserve our community we must be political. Like it or not, that’s the way the system works.

Comments welcome.

A campaign fund raiser has been arranged for our District 1 County Supervisor, Jack Duran.  To improve our chances  for limiting development should our golf course close, we will need political support from our elected officials.  This is an opportunity to make  your voice heard.  The fund raiser is Thursday May 31st from 6 pm to 8 pm at the home of Robyn Dahlgren & Michael Cappelluti, 8873 Creekstone Circle for wine, appetizers, and conversation with Jack Duran.

If you do decide to come, your  donations and your votes are as important as your voices.   This is a fund raising event, so please come prepared to donate.  Please make checks payable to “Friends of Jack Duran 2018” and include tax I.D. number 271281224 on your check.

Please RSVP to James Shelby at jshelby69@comcast.net by Wednesday, May 30th. If you can’t attend but would still like to donate, please drop a check by Robyn’s before the event.

By now you should have received from the HOA a copy of the report submitted by the Golf Course Owners to the Board titled “Northern California Golf Industry Market Conditions”.  We believe the report was commissioned by the Owners to support their request for a home owners subsidy.  It speaks in dire terms about what might happen to property values if the golf course were to close.  Its Summary concludes that if support is not forthcoming redevelopment is the best option.  It is clearly biased in that direction.  It offers no indication how difficult and all consuming of time and money it would be to even attempt to convert our ecosystem to additional residential development.  More on this in detail on a blog to follow.

We have analyzed the report in some detail and found it misleading and short on facts.  We have attached an annotated PDF version which highlights these areas,  We encourage you to look at the annotated version and then decide.  Click on the following link to see the Report,  Golf Market Conditions Report Annotated.

The following are some comments highlighting the difficulties we found with accepting the original report at face value.

1. Since the Owners paid for it, as part of their approach to the community, its objectivity is suspect from the start.
2. The summary of findings says categorically that “clearly, an abandoned golf course has the most extreme impact” on home values. Then, on p.20, it states that redevelopment with residences would have the most extreme impact on values at MC (allegedly because MCGC is so wonderful, but with no research data to support this). The summary makes no mention of this significant “finding.” The report contradicts itself, in order to claim that the Owners alternative to a subsidy will have the most impact on our values.
3. The report also says MC is especially vulnerable to a closure because of its small size, but its size is between Rocklin and Rancho Mirage, two of the comparable examples.
4. The study predicts combined increases in labor and water costs could be $60-90K per year, or $240-360K by the fourth year of their proposed 10-year plan. These increases will consume the entire $300K per year they want from us by the fourth year. Thus, if they are losing money now, they will again be losing from the fourth year on. Their proposed plan was a plan for continued failure, at our expense, according to his own study. That’s how much faith we can put in their success plans and proposals that they may want us to buy into.
5. Exhibit 6, estimating property value impacts from course closures, and Exhibit A-1, historical house values during the relevant years, don’t agree. The historical values from A-1 show a 14.8% increase trend in Rocklin (perhaps the most relevant example) and a 24.5% increase in Rancho Mirage (another California community). However, Exhibit 6 uses an increase of 24.4% in Rocklin to calculate “expected value” in 2016 and an expected increase of 16% in Rancho Mirage. Thus, the “expected” value for Rocklin in Exhibit 6 exaggerates the supposed decreases in Rocklin values, to make the closure impact in MC look scarier. For some unstated reason, the study did not apply its own historical home sales information to the “expected” values and losses in at least these two relevant communities.
6. While we agree that golf is a mature industry and is experiencing consolidation, the decline is not cataclysmic. Well managed golf courses are and will continue to survive and thrive.
7. The bottom line is that their data shows an actual increase in property sales values post closure at Rocklin, not a substantial decrease.

After the overwhelming turnout at our last HOA meeting where residents were very vocal about the need to examine the golf course financials before supporting a subsidy, course owner Charlie Gibson, withdrew his proposal to the HOA.   Mr. Gibson could still be preparing to sell the golf course, take other action, or simply wait until his house is sold before he makes his next move.  In the meantime, we will continue to monitor the situation and post any new information or calls for action.

Over 150 people showed up at last Tuesday’s Morgan Creek HOA Board meeting. Foremost in their minds was the future of the golf course.  John Cary, Board President opened the meeting with a brief summary of the status of a proposal the Board was considering, a request from the golf course owners to have the homeowners subsidize the course something over $3,000,000 over ten years which breaks down to a little over $50 per household per month.  He said the board in conjunction with its attorneys was preparing the proposal for submission to the community for a vote.  The underlying reason cited by the owners was financial difficulties.  Without the subsidy the golf course suggested it may close.  No timetable has been set for the vote, but the golf course owners have indicated it must be before the end of July.

In open forum, there were a number of concerns expressed by individual homeowners.  The recurring theme was that, to date, the owners have refused to provide financials that people believed necessary to make an informed decision.   During the forum a straw vote was taken whether anyone would vote for any subsidy without full financial transparency.  No one raised their hand.

One developer got up and spoke, based on his personal experience, about the extreme difficulty of developing the course for residential use should it close.  Among issues cited were environmental and open space restrictions.  Also mentioned was the fact that there was a $2,000,000 business loan with the golf course as collateral.

An announcement was made concerning the starting of this blog by a group of concerned owners.  It was stated that the group, Morgan Creek Homeowners Coalition, and this blog were set up to communicate concerns and activities to all homeowners. The stated goal is to act as one voice in opposition to any actions taken to diminish home values through course closure if a better way can be found through compromise and exploring other options.  Everyone present was urged to sign up for the blog to keep informed and express their views.

A couple of comments were made that if there is a subsidy that the golf course provide quid pro quo in the form of special perks such as dining vouchers or free golf to homeowners.  This would make a subsidy a bit more palatable.

Owners on the Pinehurst side complained that the golf course is not doing their part to maintain the grounds.  They cited the continued existence of unsightly weeds despite pleas to remedy the problem.

A question was asked as to whether the existence of the golf course’s proposal needed to be disclosed by homeowners selling their homes in the community.  Clearly a concern of all homeowners, one broker in the audience stated he thought it did.

Several comments were made urging the Board to curtail any unnecessary legal fees for work generated on the golf course funding proposal until financial disclosure is made showing a real need for assistance.  Someone suggested a study be performed to determine potential home equity losses that could be incurred.  This seems to be premature and costly to the HOA, especially since it would be done under threat with no proof of need.

Early in the meeting Sharon Combs, Board member and Chairman of the Gates Committee, announced that after a multi-year effort the gates were in and operating smoothly.  A round of applause thanked them for their efforts.

Most of homeowners don’t want the Morgan Creek golf course shut down and sold to developers. If you care about your home values and the Morgan Creek lifestyle attend the HOA Board Meeting Tuesday, May 15^th  @ 6:30 pm.

We are also looking for people with special skills, like attorneys, lobbyists, environmentalists, public relations/media people, journalists, etc. who are willing to lend their expertise to our group.

If the majority of homeowners sit back and do nothing then it’s possible the golf course will close. Show your support by attending the meeting and sign up for regular updates on this blog.